Monday 29 February 2016

Where There's a Will, There Might Soon Be A Cotterill

Will Buckley has, unfortunately, not yet lived up to what Blues expected of him when he signed on a six month loan in January. That might have been expected - he had not played regular football for a while but Rowett believed that with regular football he might find his old form and become a force to be reckoned with once again.

That has not happened yet, and with a fit David Cotterill back in the frame he is likely to lose his place in the starting line-up. Everyone knows by now how important Cotterill is to Blues, but in case you didn't, he's averaging 2.61 chances created a game. Buckley just 0.89 and Maghoma 0.94 chances created per 90 minutes.

This looks a bit bleak, Buckley is taking fewer shots and creating fewer chances than Cotterill and Maghoma, and though Maghoma's attacking numbers aren't that impressive he is making three tackles a game - over three times as many as the other senior wingers. Which makes the Wednesday fans who called him lazy look a little silly.

However, Buckley at Brighton had much more impressive chance creation numbers. He averaged just over two chances created a game which, from open play, is very good. That said, one could argue that in his days at Brighton he was in a more open, free flowing attacking side that allowed him to create a large amount of chances and that Blues' more cautious, less possession based style has affected his creativity.

Buckley is getting into dangerous positions less and thus is taking less shots and a lower percentage from inside the box which is cause for concern not just for him but the team - as I mentioned in an earlier article Blues don't create a large portion of chances for the striker and instead they fall to attacking midfielders as much if not more. The winger is also taking defenders on less than he used to, but I hope this will come back with time.

Will Buckley was a frighteningly quick winger who beat full backs for fun at Brighton, and it feels as though so far in a Blues shirt he doesn't have the confidence in himself, or even has been instructed not to be as direct, which is surprising. In his first game he was very good, showing glimpses of that direct, scary winger that Brighton had. If he can find that form he'll be a very good player for Blues - so far, he has been a bit disappointing.

I personally think that with regular football Will Buckley will be a fantastic player for Blues, because I think the more he plays the sooner he'll get back to full fitness and at just 26 he has plenty of time to get back to his best. The issue is whether or not Blues can give it to him right now. There is only a few months left on his loan deal and signing him permanently would probably be a big gamble given his current form.

Buckley really has to show what he is about in the next few months - if he does, it could be enough to help Blues out in the playoff charge and earn himself a permanent move to Birmingham City in the summer. He has a great opportunity to get his career back on track and he has to find his old form quickly.



Monday 8 February 2016

Let's talk about James Vaughan.

James Vaughan signed for Blues on loan 'til the end of the season with a permanent deal for a year afterwards after a successful loan spell - or at least a semi-successful one. Vaughan hasn't scored yet for Blues and this has led to a few concerns over his performance.

There seems to be a little bit of a confidence crisis for Vaughan at the moment and that penalty miss against Bournemouth will have done him no favours. That said, Vaughan's goalscoring record at Huddersfield was pretty decent and I expect that with a decent run of games he would score goals - though Blues are a side that don't create many chances for the striker (which I'll get into).

The striker in Blues' system is an unusual one that requires a lot more selfless work than say, Derby's. This means that you'd expect them to take less shots and maybe create a few more chances, though many of the chances Blues create are not a direct pass or piece of play from the forward. Often Donaldson's role is to lay off the ball early on in the move to a wide man or Jon Toral. Toral creates a lot of chances (as I spoke about in my Fabbrini article) and I think this is in a large part down to the work of Clayton Donaldson.

That's why people who complain about Donaldson's scoring record should review their stance - the reason he doesn't score many is because we don't create much for him. Whilst part of it is down to his movement and ability, a lot of it is because most of our shots come from elsewhere. In fact, of the players who have played most around him (Gray, Maghoma, Toral and Cotterill) have all taken more shots per 90 minutes than he has. Donaldson takes just 1.94 shots per 90 minutes, whereas Toral takes 2.82. Demarai Gray took a whopping 3.16 shots per 90 at his time at Blues. From inside the area, Donaldson takes 1.76 shots per 90, making him the second highest behind Toral. Unsurprisingly, it makes Donaldson the joint second most frequent scorer with Maghoma also scoring 0.22 times without penalties per 90 minutes.

That's a lot of numbers - and often people dismiss shot numbers - but it's the best indicator of future scoring. For more on why you should rate how many shots and importantly, the quality of shots, over just pure goals, check out Joel Salamon's fantastic video:


The reason I mention this is that actually, you'd expect James Vaughan to be scoring a few more. He's having about the same amount of shots from inside the area as Donaldson and a few more from outside the area. That is a good thing - not a bad thing as conventional logic might tell you. If he carries on taking shots with this frequency we can expect him to convert at a similar rate to Donaldson if not slightly better. Last year he took a similar amount of shots per 90 at Huddersfield as he is now and scored at a rate of 0.36 times per 90. Donaldson last year? 0.35.

So why is Vaughan not scoring goals? That is more down to conventional wisdoms, I'd wager. Confidence, natural swings in finishing, being comfortable in the team and just general bad luck. Vaughan is not a bad finisher - he scores at a slightly worse rate than £9m striker Jordan Rhodes given the same amount of chances (0.4 from 3.44 shots per 90 compared to Rhodes' 0.49 from 3.48) but is currently on a slump when it comes to finishing chances at present. 

One final thing on why Vaughan is actually pretty good - he's creating 1,6 chances per 90, which is over twice what it was last year at Huddersfield, which adds credence to the whole "has to do more selfless work" theory. Interestingly, it's 0.46 higher than Clayton Donaldson's chance creation numbers, so he has to be doing something right.

James Vaughan hasn't been finishing chances at the same rate he always has, but chances are, given a run of games, he would start finishing those chances again. We have to give him some time because I really think he will come good - and the numbers suggest he will too.